MSW Surf Forecasting

After a succession of deep Atlantic lows each with a black blob in the centre of the chart (48ft+ waves) we’re scheduled another blast of hurricane strength swell for the weekend Hurricane Katrina entered a shortlist of the strongest storms on landfall with a central low pressure of 920mb. This storm, as currently forecast, bottoms out at a Hurricane strength 928mb in prime spot in the centre of the Atlantic. With all major models and variants offering confidence in this scenario over the next 48hrs we’re expecting a significant European swell event starting on Sunday 27th and likely giving contestable conditions for the Mullaghmore tow event. While the storm will […]

After talking about a hypothetical North Atlantic storm we’re confronted with a very real NPAC monster already forming as forecast and set to deliver a significant swell. With Satellite observations confirming the storm is forming as forecast and it reaching maximum intensity within 48hrs we can be very confident of a significant NPAC event. With the storm forecast to head rapidly NW the peak size will only be felt in the Aleutians before a none the less very robust pulse of swell, unusual particularly for it’s intense forecast peak period, propagates west. Hitting the Hawaiian Islands in a forecast 10-12ft@19seconds range from around 310 degrees and thumping into NW exposed California at […]

This graph shows the Significant height recorded on the 62029 buoy VS the zero hour model forecast for the same location from 13th December 2012 – 13th January 2012

Another red blob stoking a storm of internet interest. We shared a chart of this storm yesterday on Facebook and it seems to have taken on a life of its own, marching across the social sphere. So how likely is it to actually happen? Update 13th Jan 2013 After attempting to pour at least a little cold water on this one the alternative atmospheric models (principally the UKMO and ECMWF) are moving to a prediction broadly in line with this one – a deep low covering the majority of the North Atlantic around Saturday 19th. While there is still variation (and a 100% model agreement isn’t the same as a 100% guarantee) […]