Atlantic 928mb

After a succession of deep Atlantic lows each with a black blob in the centre of the chart (48ft+ waves) we’re scheduled another blast of hurricane strength swell for the weekend Hurricane Katrina entered a shortlist of the strongest storms on landfall with a central low pressure of 920mb. This storm, as currently forecast, bottoms out at a Hurricane strength 928mb in prime spot in the centre of the Atlantic. With all major models and variants offering confidence in this scenario over the next 48hrs we’re expecting a significant European swell event starting on Sunday 27th and likely giving contestable conditions for the Mullaghmore tow event. While the storm will […]

NPAC 940mb

After talking about a hypothetical North Atlantic storm we’re confronted with a very real NPAC monster already forming as forecast and set to deliver a significant swell. With Satellite observations confirming the storm is forming as forecast and it reaching maximum intensity within 48hrs we can be very confident of a significant NPAC event. With the storm forecast to head rapidly NW the peak size will only be felt in the Aleutians before a none the less very robust pulse of swell, unusual particularly for it’s intense forecast peak period, propagates west. Hitting the Hawaiian Islands in a forecast 10-12ft@19seconds range from around 310 degrees and thumping into NW exposed California at […]

Atlantic Super Storm? Maybe…

Another red blob stoking a storm of internet interest. We shared a chart of this storm yesterday on Facebook and it seems to have taken on a life of its own, marching across the social sphere. So how likely is it to actually happen? Update 13th Jan 2013 After attempting to pour at least a little cold water on this one the alternative atmospheric models (principally the UKMO and ECMWF) are moving to a prediction broadly in line with this one – a deep low covering the majority of the North Atlantic around Saturday 19th. While there is still variation (and a 100% model agreement isn’t the same as a 100% guarantee) […]

Combining Swells at the Pipeline

I wrote the other day about the issues of swell in combination and the importance of reading the full forecast to best understand local conditions and the 2012 world title showdown at the Banzai Pipeline couldn’t have provided a more vivid example of the effect on the surf. While all eyes were focussed on the arrival of a modest but long period NW swell providing the best opportunity of the last few days of the window the story was complicated by a high pressure system creating a weak easterly fetch. This manifested not only in strong local winds, but importantly a clearly visible NE mid period swell that had a […]