Event Forecasts

Atlantic 928mb

After a succession of deep Atlantic lows each with a black blob in the centre of the chart (48ft+ waves) we’re scheduled another blast of hurricane strength swell for the weekend Hurricane Katrina entered a shortlist of the strongest storms on landfall with a central low pressure of 920mb. This storm, as currently forecast, bottoms out at a Hurricane strength 928mb in prime spot in the centre of the Atlantic. With all major models and variants offering confidence in this scenario over the next 48hrs we’re expecting a significant European swell event starting on Sunday 27th and likely giving contestable conditions for the Mullaghmore tow event. While the storm will […]

NPAC 940mb

After talking about a hypothetical North Atlantic storm we’re confronted with a very real NPAC monster already forming as forecast and set to deliver a significant swell. With Satellite observations confirming the storm is forming as forecast and it reaching maximum intensity within 48hrs we can be very confident of a significant NPAC event. With the storm forecast to head rapidly NW the peak size will only be felt in the Aleutians before a none the less very robust pulse of swell, unusual particularly for it’s intense forecast peak period, propagates west. Hitting the Hawaiian Islands in a forecast 10-12ft@19seconds range from around 310 degrees and thumping into NW exposed California at […]

Combining Swells at the Pipeline

I wrote the other day about the issues of swell in combination and the importance of reading the full forecast to best understand local conditions and the 2012 world title showdown at the Banzai Pipeline couldn’t have provided a more vivid example of the effect on the surf. While all eyes were focussed on the arrival of a modest but long period NW swell providing the best opportunity of the last few days of the window the story was complicated by a high pressure system creating a weak easterly fetch. This manifested not only in strong local winds, but importantly a clearly visible NE mid period swell that had a […]

Nazaré Update

The outlook remains positive for swell on Wednesday. The swell arrives in two simultaneous pulses, clearly separable in the morning on the latest forecast here. For some locations we suspect this can be an issue affecting the final size, but for Praia do Norte there’s less of an issue – with the spot relying on the cross up of the refracted long period component it could even be a benefit. Regardless we’re looking at a significant swell event moving into the sort of range the Red Bull Mito contest is seeking. The issues have been, and to some extent remain, the wind. You can see from the top chart that as this […]