MSW Surf Forecasting

TS Sandy could have the dubious distinction of offering up the largest East coast surf of the season, not necessarily something to celebrate if you bring potentially destructive winds with you. With no significant change in the outlook since yesterday it still looks likely (the NHC say 60-70% chance) that after a destructive path through Jamaica, Cuba and the Bahamas the then weakened storm will emerge in the Atlantic with enough power and proximity to produce significant surf for the East coast. Passing over land will weaken the storm, deprived of the warm water fuel it needs for growth. Wind shear will also have an impact, almost certainly seeing the storm downgraded [...]

One last hurricane: as we distract ourselves with the Rip Curl Pro Peniche the other side of the Atlantic gets a final gasp blast of Hurricane Rafael swell. While the Eastern Atlantic continues with as complicated a run of charts as we can remember (albeit with a positive move to some solid Winter low pressure systems), tropical storm activity looks to provide a decent end of season distraction on the other side of the Atlantic: With swell showing first on the Outer Banks then long period hitting from Florida all the way to Nova Scotia it’ll be relatively short-lived but decent enough while it lasts. Peaking in the 6-7ft@14 seconds [...]

Ex-Hurricane Leslie will quite possibly have the honours of producing more decent mid-sized surf than any storm we can remember and this weekend continues that theme with Europe copping a dose. All photos of the European finale for Leslie (from Scotland to Spain and anywhere else the swell lands) stand a chance to win the photographer a trip to the Maldives. Click here for more information. Leslie’s transition to a cold core North Atlantic storm hasn’t been flawless from a surfer’s perspective. Initially steered to the north east by a strong jetstream, the main recipient from her early stages was a far from surf starved Iceland. The bulk of swell to Europe [...]

UPDATE: 13th Sept 9.30am (GMT) The intensification scenario presented yesterday seems to be the chosen one meaning an increasingly powerful TS Nadine is increasingly likely to become Hurricane Nadine in the next 24hrs and increasingly likely to send small to mid sized long period swell to the US East coast for later in the weekend. The image below shows the latest model forecast for swell period for Sunday 16th – with swell in the 4-6ft@16 seconds range from Florida to Nova Scotia, with fresh coastal winds in play particularly further north. Back to back storm systems see September looking very different to August’s slow start and offer the potential for [...]