Failing to strengthen quite as quickly as predicted the likelihood is that Leslie will run into the forecast disruptive shear before achieving hurricane status – the outlook for surf is therefore a little reduced but still positive for exposed coastlines.
With the NHC giving a 75% chance of a Hurricane Leslie yesterday high confidence of a good track and intensity for significant surf seemed likely (read more here). As things have developed the forecast intensification hasn’t met that mark yet and as the storm runs into an area of disruptive wind shear strengthening looks less likely while the storm is tracking in the best direction for the East coast.
However the news isn’t bad – still a significant storm and still ultimately likely to end up a Hurricane the latest models downgrade the likely surf from 5-8ft@16 seconds to a more modest 4-6ft at a similar period at present. Still producing surf in the overhead range and larger at standout spots. Again the potential for the storm to stall and intensify is predicted by most global models, meaning that while the swell at it’s peak might not be as large as originally predicted the chances of a prolonged swell event still remain high.
We’ll continue to update as the situation develops.