UPDATE: 13th Sept 9.30am (GMT)
The intensification scenario presented yesterday seems to be the chosen one meaning an increasingly powerful TS Nadine is increasingly likely to become Hurricane Nadine in the next 24hrs and increasingly likely to send small to mid sized long period swell to the US East coast for later in the weekend.
The image below shows the latest model forecast for swell period for Sunday 16th – with swell in the 4-6ft@16 seconds range from Florida to Nova Scotia, with fresh coastal winds in play particularly further north.
Back to back storm systems see September looking very different to August’s slow start and offer the potential for yet more mid sized long period swell for the US East coast.
Tropical Storm Nadine is keeping forecasters busy with a couple of scenarios in play with regards intensity. The potential for a developing wind shear in the near term really limiting development, or a period of relatively intense development with shear weakening the storm longer range both on similar odds at the moment.
Given this variation it’s hard to pin numbers on surf size – although current swell model outputs are putting it in the range of most of the Hurricane Leslie swell for Florida through OBX albeit shorter lived and smaller at the peak. We’ll take a rain check on any more of a call than that at this stage, but will update in the next 24-48hrs when things start to look clearer. The swell (if it comes) should be arriving over the weekend.