– Todays swell will drop slightly during the day with light onshore sea breeze possible by the afternoon.
– Large swell arriving on Tuesday with strong secondary pulse on Wednesday / Thursday and dropping into Friday.
– Still some uncertainty around the winds for the week, improving confidence in generally positive conditions but still potential for some disruptive onshore during this swell especially on Wednesday.
– Large variation in the forecast beyond Friday but poor outlook most likely at this stage.
Sun 30th / Mon 1st
Swell this mornign measuring 5.5ft on the local buoy with light local winds creating head high to overhead surf dropping into Monday.
Still no change since yesterdays update: Swell dropping slightly through the day today and sunny skies meaning things could warm up enough to create onshore sea breeze for later in the day. Swell size on Monday looks well outside competition range given the forecast.
Tues 2nd / Wed 3rd / Thurs 4th / Fri 5th
Large storm now forming (Satellite data showing 45knt+ winds) and forecast to bring prolonger larger, longer period swell from Tuesday through to Friday. With a pronounced bump in size on Wed / Thurs but with a dropping period. Still some uncertainty around the wind forecast.
Little change again for this Sunday update: Numbers in the 7ft@13 seconds range for Tuesday giving solid overhead to double overhead conditions, holding through Wednesday and with a potentially strong bump in size on Thursday as this initial longer range pulse is reinforced by a more locally generated portion of the swell with a lower overall period, but still some of that longer period in the mix.
For winds we have a favourite scenario from the latest model runs: Lighter winds Tuesday morning with some onshore by the afternoon. A period of light winds on Wednesday first thing before stronger onshore develops later in the day and then moving back to lighter winds for Thursday and into Friday. If this is the case then effectively we have a general tendency to onshore air flow – moderated in the mornings by the normal offshore sea breeze and exaggerated in the afternoons by that same typical onshore sea breeze. However this scenario being most likely doesn’t mean it’s the only possibility in play and with the storm system extending so far south there will definitely be an increased tendency to onshore conditions than were high pressure fully in control as we’ve seen today.
Sat 6th / Sun 7th
Uncertain long range outlook with Hurricane Nadine still looking like she could come into play but not in a positive way for competition surf.
Hurricane Nadine is on track to enter the record books as one of the longest lived North Atlantic storms. The forecast models have consistently expected her to track north towards the end of the forecast range and to become a cold core storm and this update is no different with suggestions that she’ll merge with a developing East coast low over next weekend and create a interesting low latitude storm. However this has little positive impact on Hossegor at this stage with the storm well outside the preferred NW window.