– Large swell arriving on Tuesday with strong secondary pulse on Wednesday / Thursday and dropping into Friday.
– Improving confidence in generally positive winds particularly in the mornings, with afternoon onshore breezes likely particularly on Wednesday.
– Large variation in the forecast beyond Friday but poor outlook most likely at this stage.
Smaller clean swell this morning drops through the day until reinforced by the start of the new swell later this afternoon. Sea breeze expected this afternoon if skies remain clear.
Still no change since yesterday’s update: Swell dropping slightly through the day today and sunny skies meaning things could warm up enough to create onshore sea breeze for later in the day. Swell size on Monday looks well outside competition range given the forecast.
Early morning will see the arrival of the start of the week’s swell. Potentially feeling a little inconsistent first thing as the new swell builds. Positive indication of morning offshores with afternoon onshore sea breeze likely.
With the swell building through the night right into Tuesday and that longer period we’d expect a possibly slightly inconsistent feel first thing with the longer interval between sets typical of a longer period swell and possibly slightly exacerbated by that large dropping tide. Swell size at dawn should be in the 5-6ft@14 seconds range meaning sets in the head and a half range. The swell builds through the morning towards an initial peak early in the evening around 7ft@13 seconds.
WIND: Latest model data suggests that Hossegor sits just south of the onshore air flow further up the coast and there’s agreement on this from local agencies (Meteo France) and our other sources. However to give an idea of the knife edge on which we’re sitting the same agencies are suggesting onshore air flow only 20-30 miles further up the coast. Even at this stage this leaves some room for variation. However the most likely scenario at this stage is for clear skies tonight to result in a typical cold start and morning offshore, with the wind tending onshore into the afternoon principally from the normal afternoon sea breeze.
Swell peaking overnight and dropping slightly, but possibly feeling more consistent post-peak. Hopeful for morning offshore but definite risk of stronger onshore by the afternoon.
The bulk of the first pulse of the swell will pile in with a lower period, similar direction and size a little smaller than later on Tuesday afternoon but only by a modest difference before a second pulse starts things building again later in the afternoon.
WIND: Wednesday remains the riskiest day for onshore conditions. With continued clear skies and cold nights we’d expect the most likely scenario is a typical morning offshore, but a light onshore airflow affecting the coast as the storm passes over Northern Europe, coupled with that normal afternoon sea breeze suggests that we’ll see an earlier move to onshore’s in the afternoon and stronger than on recent days. Again the extent of this is governed by the position of the low pressure and the ability of Hossegor to remain (as the current models suggest) positioned JUST to the south of the worst of the disruption.
The swell peaks over night / early morning but runs solidly through the day dropping into the afternoon in the 7ft@11 seconds range seeing continuing large surf. Winds look increasingly favourable.
Swell continues in the 7ft@11 seconds range with that lower period than earlier in the week but a very similar direction. Dropping into the afternoon but remaining solid with potential for surf in the head and a half range with occasional larger sets and that more consistent feel that comes from a lower period.
WIND: Again we’re looking at a likely morning offshore situation. The difference come Thursday is there’s actually some suggestion of a developing offshore air flow during the day with high pressure resuming control over mainland Europe. The most optimistic interpretation is that this will delay the afternoon sea breeze and give favourable winds for most of the day. However at this end of the forecast there’s still opportunity for change.
Dropping swell in the lower period range looking very similar at this stage to the swell we saw at the start of round one. Variation in the wind forecast but the possibility of stronger southerly winds increasing through the day.
Dying swell in the 4-6ft@10 seconds range dropping through the day but allowing for surf in the head+ range through the day if the winds are favourable and the swell remains as currently forecast.
WIND: Less certainty on winds at this range , some suggestion of a fresh southerly wind increasing through the day and probably pulled cross/offshore in the morning and cross/on by the afternoon.
Sat 6th / Sun 7th
Uncertain long range outlook with Hurricane Nadine still looking like she could come into play but not in a positive way for competition surf.
Unchanged since last update: Hurricane Nadine is on track to enter the record books as one of the longest lived North Atlantic storms. The forecast models have consistently expected her to track north towards the end of the forecast range and to become a cold core storm and this update is no different with suggestions that she’ll merge with a developing East coast low over next weekend and create a interesting low latitude storm. However this has little positive impact on Hossegor at this stage with the storm well outside the preferred NW window.