– Little change from yesterday’s update.
– Swell built rapidly from dawn with a secondary pulse due on Wednesday / Thursday and dropping into Friday.
– Continuing confidence in generally positive winds particularly in the mornings, with afternoon onshore breezes likely particularly on Wednesday.
– Still large variation in the forecast beyond Friday.
Swell peaking overnight and dropping very slightly into Wednesday morning. Morning offshore but definite risk of stronger onshore by the afternoon.
The bulk of the first pulse of the swell will pile in with a lower period, similar direction and size a little smaller than later on Tuesday afternoon but only by a modest difference before a second pulse starts things building again later in the afternoon.
WIND: Wednesday remains the riskiest day for onshore conditions. With continued clear skies and cold nights we’d expect the most likely scenario is a typical morning offshore, but a light onshore airflow affecting the coast as the storm passes over Northern Europe, coupled with that normal afternoon sea breeze suggests that we’ll see an earlier move to onshore’s in the afternoon and stronger than on recent days. Again the extent of this is governed by the position of the low pressure and the ability of Hossegor to remain (as the current models suggest) positioned JUST to the south of the worst of the disruption.
The swell peaks over night / early morning but runs solidly through the day dropping into the afternoon in the 7ft@11 seconds range seeing continuing large surf. Winds look increasingly favourable.
Swell continues in the 7ft@11 seconds range with that lower period than earlier in the week but a very similar direction. Dropping into the afternoon but remaining solid with potential for surf in the head and a half range with occasional larger sets and that more consistent feel that comes from a lower period.
WIND: Again we’re looking at a likely morning offshore situation. The difference come Thursday is there’s actually some suggestion of a developing offshore air flow during the day with high pressure resuming control over mainland Europe. The most optimistic interpretation is that this will delay the afternoon sea breeze and give favourable winds for most of the day. Since yesterdays update this offshore has weakened
Dropping swell in the lower period range looking very similar at this stage to the swell we saw at the start of round one. Variation in the wind forecast but the possibility of stronger southerly winds increasing through the day.
Dying swell in the 4-6ft@10 seconds range dropping through the day but allowing for surf in the head+ range through the day if the winds are favourable and the swell remains as currently forecast.
WIND: Less certainty on winds at this range , some suggestion of a fresh southerly wind increasing through the day and probably pulled cross/offshore in the morning and cross/on by the afternoon.
Sat 6th / Sun 7th
Uncertain long range outlook with Hurricane Nadine still looking like she could come into play but not in a positive way for competition surf.
Unchanged since last update: Hurricane Nadine is on track to enter the record books as one of the longest lived North Atlantic storms. The forecast models have consistently expected her to track north towards the end of the forecast range and to become a cold core storm and this update is no different with suggestions that she’ll merge with a developing East coast low over next weekend and create a interesting low latitude storm. However this has little positive impact on Hossegor at this stage with the storm well outside the preferred NW window.