Rip Curl Pro Peniche :: Fri 5th Oct

Summary

-Ex-Hurricane Nadine and TS Oscar both come into play for the early stages of the window.
-Tropical Storm forecasting normally involves a lot less certainty, even in the shorter term so the outlook is very variable even at this stage.
-Potential for solid west swell before the comp and during the trials.
-Ex-Hurricane Nadine and TS Oscar both come into play for the early stages of the window.


Large Mid Atlantic low potentially sending solid west swell for the trials.

Tue 9th

Potential for solid west swell from a Mid Atlantic low formed around the remnants of Hurricane Nadine and Oscar, some potential variability in the forecast but improved winds on todays update.

Model forecasts are suggesting a large Mid Atlantic low will form around the remnants of Ex-Hurricane Nadine. We can confirm this has started to happen from the latest Satellite data. However the forecast swell for Peniche then relies on the newly formed TS Oscar merging with this low and creating an area of strengthened wind generating a solid mid-sized, mid-period swell peaking on monday in the head and a half+ range and running a little smaller on into Monday.

Since yesterdays update the wind outlook for the trials is generally favourable with light winds forecast.

Wed 10th

Unchanged: Assuming the latest model data holds we’re looking at a rapidly dropping westerly wind swell as the storm passes by. Waves in the chest high range to start the day and light winds.

Given the storm is relatively local the swell will drop rapidly as it passes by. With 4ft@10 seconds the latest numbers for the morning we’d expect waves in the chest to head high range first thing but considerably smaller by later in the afternoon.

Thurs 11th and Beyond

The situation is very mixed at this stage but there are positive signs of a low forming around Greenland bringing NNW swell into the weekend of the 13th/14th.

Multi agency agreement in a low pressure system that’ll start forming around Greenland on Wednesday creating a potential for NNW swell around Saturday 13th/Sunday 14th. Very mixed picture on size with some models suggesting substantial long period swell and some considerably more muted. Perhaps the most likely scenario at this stage for swell in the 4-6ft@14 seconds range from this direction. The direction isn’t perfect for Supertubos with shelter from the more northerly swells significantly impacting the wave size. Additionally there’s very high variability in the wind forecast at this range.