Rip Curl Pro Peniche :: Mon 8th Oct

Summary

- Solid swell on tap for the trials with onshore winds a risk for the afternoon.
- NNW swell for the weekend with still considerable variation in the forecast.
- Large storm system sending pulses of more westerly swell for next week.


Tue 9th

No Change: Solid west swell from a Mid Atlantic low formed around the remnants of Hurricane Nadine and Oscar with light westerly winds stronger in the afternoons.

Model forecasts are suggesting a large Mid Atlantic low will form around the remnants of Ex-Hurricane Nadine. We can confirm this has started to happen from the latest Satellite data. However the forecast swell for Peniche then relies on the newly formed TS Oscar merging with this low and creating an area of strengthened wind generating a solid mid-sized, mid-period swell peaking on monday in the head and a half+ range and running a little smaller on into Tuesday easing back during the day.

Wed 10th – Fri 12th

Small westerly wind swell, best of the left overs on Wednesday morning.

Dying remnants of the trials swell for Wednesday then a series of small windswell pulses from the west with light westerly wind until Friday when we have stronger north winds and a slightly increased wind swell with a lot of north in it as a result. Long period fore runners of the weekends swell start to appear Friday evening but probably not at surfable size.

Sat 13th – Sun 14th

Still a great deal of variation in the forecast but expectations of larger NNW swell in the 12-14 second period range.

We’ve got increasing confidence in a swell forming from a low pressure system over Iceland creating an area of high winds from the Greenland jet tip and pushing a fairly significant NNW swell towards Peniche for the weekend. There’s still a lot of variation from different models on the intensity of the storm and hence the swell period, height and even direction are still showing large variation. The most likely numbers are a peak around 6-10ft@12-14 seconds with direction varying from about 325 – 340 degrees.

Given these numbers we’re looking at surf heights building into the head high range if we see the lower end of that scale, or right into the well overhead range at the better end of that scale. The final direction of the swell will be critical with the significant amount of north in the forecast.

The storm creating this swell is forecast for Wed/Thurs this week so we should have a much clearer idea in the next couple of days for the weekend.

Winds are looking light and westerly earlier in the forecast period then tending stronger and northerly from the weekend and beyond.

Mon 15th

A large, intense, storm system forming over Eastern Canada sends a small reinforcing pulse of more westerly swell.

Since the last update there’s a broad agreement in significant storm activity around Eastern Canada over the weekend. At this range for storm formation we’re dealing with a situation highly likely to change in the detail but NW swell from this storm could arrive as early as monday, reinforcing that dying NNW swell. The issue at the moment is the storm seems most likely to track to the NE meaning any swell for Portugal will be right on the fringes of the storm with the main pulse heading up towards Iceland.

Tues 16th+

A second pulse from the same storm arrives towards the middle of next week.

Again model indication of a second area of storm force winds in the same system sending swell towards the SE this time, much more favourably for Peniche. With a relatively short intense fetch and the swell travelling right across the Atlantic we’d expect mid sized swell with a longer period as a possibility for the middle/end of next week.