Rip Curl Peniche Pro : Tues 9th Oct


– NNW swell for the weekend looking likely for head+ surf.
– Large storm system sending pulses of more westerly swell for next week with a very very mixed, but positive, longer range outlook.

Wed 10th – Fri 12th

Small westerly wind swell, best of the left overs on Wednesday morning.

Dying remnants of the trials swell for Wednesday then a series of small windswell pulses from the west with light westerly wind until Friday when we have stronger north winds and a slightly increased wind swell with a lot of north in it as a result. Long period fore runners of the weekends swell start to appear Friday evening but probably not at surfable size.

Sat 13th – Sun 14th

Solid swell now looks highly likely for first thing Saturday dropping in size into Sunday. Winds fresh northerly.

The numbers on this swell are looking increasingly reliable:

At issue is the swell direction, sitting just a little too Northerly to escape some significant moderating influence from the Peniche shadow. The swell is coming from 330 degrees on the Saturday and dropping in size on Sunday but moving to about 325 degrees.

You can see from the photos from a couple of recent swells in a similar range the difference between just over 10 degrees in direction as we come increasingly westerly. The first shot, in the head+ range is a slightly small, albeit slightly longer period swell from about 319 degrees. The second shot from the end of last month a larger swell every so slightly more northerly than our forecast for the weekend giving smaller chest to head high conditions.

The longer period will favour this weekend and we’d expect surf in the head+ range. Where Sunday drops in size it moves West in direction which should maintain some of that size post peak.

7.5ft@13 seconds from 319 degrees. 2nd Oct 2012 (c)

8ft@12 seconds from 332 degrees. 27th Sept 2012. (c)

Equally interesting is how close this swell is to the finals day from last year. Which came in around 8ft@12 seconds from the same direction:

Finals day. Wed 19th 2011 on a similar sized swell.

Mon 15th and Beyond

Beyond this weekend we’re look at as complex and┬áchangeable┬ásituation in the North Atlantic as we could imagine. Confidence in a specific scenario is low – however there are clear indications of a very intense low pressure system forming over the weekend offering significant swell for next week.

The latest model data suggests that the large storm due to form between Greenland and North Eastern Canada will spit an initial pulse of mid sized, long period westerly swell that will arrive at about the same time on Monday as a large Northerly swell formed by the storm as it then moves out into the Atlantic and re-intensifies. This westerly component, particularly, could be what’s needed for ongoing competition conditions in the head+ range for Monday onward.

Thurs 18th / Fri 19th

There are hints of the weekend’s storm system sending a very significant swell towards the end of next week.

There’s general agreement at this stage in a significant new storm forming from the remnants of the weekends system and a developing US East coast low. The outlook remains very mixed but broadly positive for continued large surf next week with the possibility of a very significant swell towards the end of the period.