Rip Curl Pro Peniche :: Wed 10th Oct

Summary

- NNW swell for the weekend looking likely for head+ surf but smaller on Sunday.
- Possible pause in the swell on Monday and very variable for the next pulse Monday / Tuesday.
- North winds dominant into the early part of next week.
- Large or possibly extremely large swell for later next week.


Wed 10th – Fri 12th

Small westerly wind swell, best of the left overs on Wednesday morning.

Dying remnants of the trials swell for Wednesday then a series of small windswell pulses from the west with light westerly wind until Friday when we have stronger north winds and a slightly increased wind swell with a lot of north in it as a result. Long period fore runners of the weekends swell start to appear Friday evening but probably not at surfable size.

Sat 13th – Sun 14th

Solid swell now looks highly likely for first thing Saturday dropping in size into Sunday. Winds fresh northerly.

Only slight change overnight to favour fractionally smaller swell on Saturday but with improved period and a slightly more westerly direction. The direction on Sunday now looks the same as on Saturday. The storm still has two centre’s giving a westerly component and a more northerly component. The forecast isn’t seeing these as separate swells which suggests that the numbers might be slightly flattering the swell as the northerly component struggles to find the beach. We’re still looking at numbers in the range of the 2011 finals day for Saturday suggesting waves in the head+ range and larger on the better sets. Sunday looks to drop in size on Saturdays peak in the afternoon.

WIND FORECAST: Fresh northerly winds strong at times should allow for contestable conditions but there remains about a 15-20% suggestion that the winds may back westerly which could create cross-shore or periods of onshore wind particularly later in the weekend.

Mon 15th / Tues 16th

Increasingly likely we’ll see a pause in the swell before a new more westerly pulse arrives later in the day Monday or on Tuesday. Huge variability continues.

The models are still seeing a bomb low pressure forming off the Labrador coast through Friday. Yesterday was showing a confused picture with this swell arriving along with a large pulse of much more northerly swell. The latest outlook has changed and that northerly pulse hits France and further north with much reduced size for Peniche. Either way it’d be too northerly to matter much and the focus is on the westerly swell generated by this Labrador storm.

The uncertainty in this forecast is firstly because this storm is yet to form at all, but also because it sits in a relatively limited area of the Labrador sea and a modest movement in this storm away from it’s forecast track could leave a very limited area of fetch for swell generation. In the latest updates we’ve seen the outlook switch from 5-6ft@15+ seconds from the NW from a small but intense fetch pointing towards Europe to a much more muted situation with the bulk of the swell heading towards Iceland. Unfortunately this gives us a range somewhere between epic (with the swell heading straight for us) and very much more modest (as we get side¬†swiped¬†by a much smaller edge of the main swell) and this level of variability is likely to remain in the forecast until we approach Friday and can confirm exactly how the storm’s behaving.

If we don’t see this significant swell arrive on Monday the latest outlook is for modest WNW wind swell still offering potential for chest to head high waves.

WIND FORECAST: Changeable picture tending light onshore on Monday on the latest update.

Wed 17th / Thurs 18th and Beyond

Still suggestions of a second pulse in the storm and movement out into the Atlantic sending significant swell for later in the window.

While this phase is further in the future, which lends itself to even more uncertainty as a rule, the consensus is that this Labrador storm will move on into the Northern Atlantic. While it’s path and intensity are subject to change it does look increasingly likely we’re looking at significant swell during this period possibly pushing at the upper limits of contestable at Supertubos.

WIND FORECAST: Very variable at this range but about 40% of models showing a tendency to onshore conditions as a possible risk to this stage of the waiting period.