Rip Curl Pro Peniche :: Thurs 11th Oct

Summary

- Two pulses of swell for the weekend increasing on Saturday afternoon, peaking overnight and dropping through Sunday into Monday.
- Risk of onshore winds later in the weekend and again on Tuesday.
- Large or possibly extremely large swell for later next week with increasing risk of strong Westerly winds.


Fri 12th

Small NW wind swell and forerunners of the new swell starting to show in the afternoon.

Modest NW wind swell and a return to more northerly winds with the first long range, inconsistent forerunners of the weekends swell starting to show towards last light.

Sat 13th – Sun 14th

Swell from Saturday morning with increase in period, power and size as a second pulse within the storm fills in later in the day. Winds fresh northerly with increasing risk of backing westerly on Sunday afternoon.

As with everything in the waiting period so far the situation is more complex than it could be. With Satellite data confirming that the storm centred between Iceland and Greenland is forming broadly as forecast we can start to have a high degree of confidence in the model numbers of the storm. As expected it has two distinct areas of fetch: A more Southerly, weaker area forming around the Greenland Jet tip that’ll be responsible for the swell first thing on Saturday morning and a more intense area of fetch against the North Eastern coast of Greenland sending a reinforcing pulse of longer period swell that’ll increasingly mix in on Saturday and peak into early Sunday. Positives are a move to a slightly more westerly angle for the swell and a period that’ll really start to assist refraction into the beach at Supertubos. However where we have to swells in the mix like this the outcome often feels a little different to one single area of fetch and hints at a possible slightly inconsistent feel at times earlier on Saturday. We’d expect waves in the head to head and a half range with the odd standout set towards the late afternoon as the second pulse fills in.

Swell drops into Sunday but direction continues to improve suggesting waves in the head high+ range through the day and larger in the morning and on the better sets.

WIND FORECAST: Fresh northerly winds strong at times should allow for contestable conditions and increasing likelihood that the winds may back westerly which could create cross-shore or periods of onshore wind particularly later in the weekend with Sunday afternoon the highest risk of disruption.

Mon 15th / Tues 16th

Increasingly likely we’ll see a pause in the swell before a new more westerly pulse arrives later in the day Monday or on Tuesday. Variability continues but slightly smaller longer period swell from the Labrador storm looks set to arrive Monday afternoon.

The models are still seeing a bomb low pressure forming off the Labrador coast through Friday and starting to arrive on Monday afternoon with the dying remnants of the weekends swell still around for the morning – giving a better outlook for Monday competition that on the last update. Tuesday sees this swell fill in with still the chance of a reinforcing Northerly component – the risk here is of onshore wind.

As with yesterday’s update the uncertainty in this forecast is firstly because this storm is yet to form at all, but also because it sits in a relatively limited area of the Labrador sea and a modest movement in this storm away from it’s forecast track could leave a very limited area of fetch for swell generation. ¬†However since yesterday we’re seeing a much higher confidence in the long period westerly swell scenario with most models showing this as likely in the 4ft@14 seconds from around 315 degrees very capable of producing surf well over head at Supertubos.

WIND FORECAST: Still highly changeable with most likely fresh northerlies on Monday and a risk of Westerly onshores for Tuesday.

Wed 17th / Thurs 18th and Beyond

Still a highly active North Atlantic and likelihood of very significant swell as storm activity moves East and low pressure sits over Northern Europe. Large variability in the details even at this range. Swell size could be an issue as could strong Westerly winds.

Still huge variation but the trend being for significant storm activity moving east across the Atlantic bringing very large swell and then, as the storm system moves over Europe a risk that it’ll extend far enough South to bring onshore westerly conditions to Peniche.

WIND FORECAST: Very variable at this range but increasing tendency to onshore conditions as a risk to this stage of the waiting period.