Rip Curl Pro Peniche :: Fri 12th Oct

Summary

- Two pulses of swell for the weekend increasing on Saturday afternoon, peaking overnight and dropping through Sunday into Monday.
- Long period NW swell building on Monday and into Tuesday.
- Risk of light onshore winds later in the weekend and again on Tuesday becoming increasingly strong.
- Large or possibly extremely large swell for later next week with increasing risk of strong Westerly winds.


Sat 13th – Sun 14th

Little Change: Swell from Saturday morning with increase in period, power and size as a second pulse within the storm fills in later in the day. Winds fresh northerly with increasing risk of backing westerly earlier on Sunday.

As with everything in the waiting period so far the situation is more complex than it could be. With satellite data confirming that the storm centred between Iceland and Greenland formed as forecast we can start to have a high degree of confidence in the model numbers of the storm. As expected it has two distinct areas of fetch: A more southerly, weaker area forming around the Greenland Jet tip that’ll be responsible for the swell first thing on Saturday morning and a more intense area of fetch against the North Eastern coast of Greenland sending a reinforcing pulse of longer period swell that’ll increasingly mix in on Saturday and peak into early Sunday. Positives are a move to a slightly more westerly angle for the swell and a period that’ll really start to assist refraction into the beach at Supertubos. However where we have two swells in the mix like this, the outcome often feels a little different to one single area of fetch, and hints at a possible slightly inconsistent feel at times earlier on Saturday. We’d expect waves in the head to head-and-a-half range with the odd standout set towards the late afternoon as the second pulse fills in.

Swell drops into Sunday but direction continues to improve suggesting waves in the head high+ range through the day and larger in the morning and on the better sets.

WIND FORECAST: Fresh northerly winds strong at times should allow for contestable conditions and increasing likelihood that the winds may back westerly now earlier on Sunday than on the last update which could create cross-shore or periods of lighter onshore wind in the morning before strong northerlies resume. There’s still some variation in the timing on this.

Mon 15th / Tues 16th

With North swell remaining on Monday morning and that long period blast filling in earlier than on the last update the outlook is increasingly positive. Winds could be an issue on Tuesday. Increasing confidence as satellites confirm the storm starting to form.

The models are seeing a bomb low pressure forming off the Labrador coast through Friday and starting to arrive on Monday afternoon with the dying remnants of the weekend’s swell still around for the morning – giving a better outlook for Monday competition that on the last update. Tuesday sees this swell fill in with still the chance of a reinforcing Northerly component – the risk here is of onshore wind.

While there’ll be variation in the final numbers for the next 24-48hrs as the storm builds, we’re now more confidently expecting a solid pulse of NW swell in the 4-5ft@16 seconds range. While a little smaller than the weekend’s storm this period and direction combination will refract onto the sand at Supertubos and give waves at least in the range of the weekend as the swell fills in from about midday on Monday. Swell builds as period drops on Tuesday but potential for disruptive SW winds looking increasingly likely.

WIND FORECAST: Still highly changeable with most likely fresh northerlies on Monday and a risk of westerly onshores for Tuesday.

Wed 17th / Thurs 18th / Fri 19th

Still a highly active North Atlantic and likelihood of very significant swell as storm activity moves East and low pressure sits over Northern Europe. Very large swell and increasing chance of disruptive winds.

Good model agreement now in the Labrador low spreading into the Atlantic and a new centre forming over Ireland towards the middle of next week. The storm will bring prolonged, significant swell peaking in a range that’ll quite probably be too much to handle with upper limit readings in the 20ft@16 seconds range on Thursday. The issue is the storm sitting far south enough to bring strong and disruptive westerly onshore winds through this stage of the waiting period.

WIND FORECAST: Still room for variation but increasing risk of prolonged westerly disruption.

Sat 20th / Sun 21st

Less confidence at this end of the forecast but continued large swell and more variable wind outlook.

All suggestions are of continued significant swell but with a much broader range of possibilities at this end of the forecast. Likewise for winds there are still strong suggestions of continued problematic westerlies but more possibility that this will change for the final weekend of the waiting period.