– Dropping surf from the current swell into Sunday.
– Potential pause on Monday morning before longer period swell fills in into the later afternoon.
– Suggestions in delay of onshore conditions make Tuesday a possibility for contestable surf.
– Remaining probability that the waiting period from Wednesday onward will suffer strong and disruptive onshore winds.
Today’s swell drops with a reinforcing northerly pulse unlikely to add much size in the Peniche shadow. Winds risk light onshore in morning before returning northerly.
As expected today’s swell started with an inconsistent feel exacerbated by both the northerly angle of the swell and the two pulses in combination. With tomorrow’s forecast for a dropping swell with slightly improved direction we’d expect to see reduced wave sizes on today’s peak with potentially that same slightly inconsistent feel as only the best of the sets refract onto the beach.
TIDES (Local Time)
WIND FORECAST: Forecast indicating risk of light onshore conditions to start the day although we’d expect this to be moderated by the normal offshore morning sea breeze. Increasingly fresh northerly winds by the afternoon.
Pulse of more local North swell in the morning too Northerly to offer much surf size before a better westerly pulse fills in later in the afternoon.
The northerly wind swell in the morning is really pushing towards a direction that’ll limit it’s potential to create surf at Supertubos however a small reinforcing westerly swell and that building NW long period will mean conditions continue to improve as the NW starts to fill in during the day, but we look towards mid afternoon now for the best of the day with the swell size for the storm reduced to the 3-4ft@16 / 222 degrees range on the latest update but still in a range that should produce decent surf.
TIDES (Local Times)
WIND FORECAST: Continuing fresh northerly offshore.
A potentially extended window for competition before the onshore winds hit.
Tuesday most likely see’s a continuation of the initial pulse of NW long period swell with new shorter period swell from the same storm pushing up the size as the day progresses. With the latest models suggesting light winds in the morning and even the westerly flow in the afternoon less disruptive than before we have a potentially extended window for competition in modest sized surf particularly in the morning before the high risk of deteriorating winds towards the middle of the week.
Wed 17th / Thurs 18th / Fri 19th
Slightly reduced peak swell heights move closer to the upper limit for competition but still high risk of very disruptive westerly winds.
The risk remains the same as it has since the start of the waiting period. All major weather agency models see the storm move East across the Atlantic and sit centered south of Ireland with the latest updates showing the whole of North Western Europe affected, with strong westerly winds from France all the way down to Southern Spain. While the latest forecast reduces peak swell heights towards the upper end of the range we could expect to see as reasonable for competition at Supertubos this onshore wind means there’s an increasingly high risk of no window for competition from Wednesday on into the following weekend.
Sat 20th / Sun 21st
Less confidence at this end of the forecast but continued large swell and more variable wind outlook.
Model forecasts suggest that as this first large low pressure moves away to the north another, more southerly, low will bring potential for continued disruption to the coast. While the picture at this range is considerably more variable and there exists a window for lighter winds as we move between storm systems there remains the real and significant risk of onshore winds and large swell right up until the end of the competition window.