Rip Curl Pro Portugal :: Mon 15th Oct


Detailed Supertubos Forecast Data
North Atlantic Forecast Charts

Summary

– Tuesday sees a transition from Northerly to onshore Westerly conditions.
– Disruptive storm creating onshore conditions through the middle of the week.
– Possible transition between storms hints at contestable conditions sometime around Fri/Sat before the risk of another storm creating problem winds towards the end of the window.


Tues 16th

Decent NW swell remains but problem SW winds increasing through the day.

Monday evenings NW swell continues to run through the day with the start of the larger pulse filling in for the evening. The day will start well in the competition range for surf size and by the end of the day we’ll see the largest surf of the window so far. However the latest wind forecasts suggest we’ll see the start of an onshore westerly airflow from the start of the day. Given this is lightest in the morning it’s possible the morning offshore sea breeze will mitigate this to some extent – although this wasn’t the case, as we’d hoped, on Sunday. Certainly as the day wears on this wind is likely to increase fresh to strong creating high potential for disruption at Supertubos.

Wed 17th

New swell starts to pile in and strong westerly winds create poor conditions again worsening though the day.

For the swell to hit the peaks forecast the small low pressure centre moving East drops South and creates westerly onshore all day. Even at this stage there’s some variation in the strength from different agencies but nothing to give the slightest hint of optimism with deepening low pressure set to extend its reach

Thurs 18th

The peak of the swell hits as the strong onshore wind slowly eases through the day.

The peak of the swell hits with model numbers in the 14ft@14seconds range. The wind looks fresh westerly in the morning and moving towards the north west later in the day. Some suggestions it’ll drop a little during the day but nothing at this stage to suggest a window for competition.

Fri 19th

Transition period between the storms begins some time around this time with a very, very mixed outlook – although possible positive hints.

Sometime between later on Thursday and the weekend we’ll see this first storm system move away before (and at this range the prognosis for the weekend is even more uncertain) a second system arrives. We saw yesterdays model update this move Friday’s forecast from onshore Westerly to a glimpse of almost perfect North winds and remaining solid NW swell. While change in a positive direction as we get closer to the event has to be a good thing a change of this magnitude indicates the continuing high variability and low confidence in the forecast at this stage.

For today’s update it’s worth noting that the US Agencies we primarily rely on for forecast data are suggesting this resumption of offshore northerly winds, where the European Agencies also running reliable longer range models are suggesting a more likely NW or Westerly situation. In both these latter scenarios the winds look generally lighter than in the middle of the week as low pressure moves away, but the potential for problems remain and when we have this kind of disagreement between models it means the situation is generally unsettled, hard to predict and liable to change as we’ve seen already over the last 24 hours.

If we do get a break in the winds the swell at this stage looks very positive in size and direction for competition conditions.

Sat 20th / Sun 21st

More variation but still risk of onshore conditions and mid to large sized NW swell.

The low pressure system threatening the weekend is the remnants of the current Hurricane Rafael. Normally with Tropical storms ┬áthere’s huge variation at this range, but in this case the US National Hurricane Centre are confident the storm will head north then east sitting somewhere just off the coast of Europe by the weekend. Again this scenario will bring large swell and, again, the risk of strong onshore winds at the end of the waiting period.