– Winds ease into Thursday as the large swell peaks overnight.
– Swell holds through Thursday but drops on Friday.
– Lighter variable winds for the next couple of days.
Solid mix of swell in the 11ft@13 seconds range. Winds easing to lighter and variable.
As with everything in the waiting period so far, the situation is more complex than it first appears. This evening and overnight we see today’s large, powerful local swell mix in with the oncoming longer period NW swell from the original storm and a smaller longer period northerly component. In combination the swell is similar to the 2011 peak 11ft@13 seconds vs. 10ft@15 seconds – however given last year’s was a single swell and with that longer period, our expectation is that tomorrow the swell might not quite match that for size but might feel more chaotic with those different directions in the mix. If last year hit around 6-10ft+ faces then we’d expect Thurs to be more be frequently towards the lower end of this same scale, with occasional standout sets although it’s harder to predict how these swells will act in combination. The swell peaks early, so the size first thing is indicative of the largest conditions likely throughout the day, although we’ve seen significant variation on the tide in recent days and we remain on large spring tides.
WINDS: We’re expecting a drop in winds for tomorrow but there is variation in direction and timing from different models and agencies. Outlook is positive for winds generally light and variable through the day with the highest risk of westerly remaining in the morning, but still lighter than we’ve seen today.
Large swell eases through the day. With light, variable winds most likely.
The swell remains solid into Friday morning then easing through the day.
WIND: Again variable but lighter than in recent days and unlikely to cause disruption.
Sat 20th / Sun 21st
Small dropping NW on Saturday with light winds before significant Hurricane swell fills in overnight with strong southerly winds.
Saturday sees chest high waves dropping through the day with remaining light variable winds before a new, powerful, long period westerly swell develops in the evening and overnight from Ex-Hurricane Rafael. Accompanied by strong southerly winds and producing waves well into the double overhead+ range on the latest numbers.
The final dying gasps of the large NW swell drop during the day, although the angle allows for modest surf as a result.