NPAC 940mb

After talking about a hypothetical North Atlantic storm we’re confronted with a very real NPAC monster already forming as forecast and set to deliver a significant swell.

With Satellite observations confirming the storm is forming as forecast and it reaching maximum intensity within 48hrs we can be very confident of a significant NPAC event. With the storm forecast to head rapidly NW the peak size will only be felt in the Aleutians before a none the less very robust pulse of swell, unusual¬†particularly¬†for it’s intense forecast peak period, propagates west.

Hitting the Hawaiian Islands in a forecast 10-12ft@19seconds range from around 310 degrees and thumping into NW exposed California at a not too much reduced 8ft@19 a couple of days later.

Eyes will be on the Quiksilver Eddie and Redbull Peahi paddle competitions. For Waimea the latest numbers suggest too much period and not enough size at this stage – while Peahi numbers are looking in the range of recent standout swells as the period drops and the swell moves a little more northerly. But the caution at this stage, aside the fact that the storm still has a couple of days to play out, are in the swell models ability to resolve smaller areas of very intense wind accurately. An issue typically seen at it’s worst with Hurricane swells but quite possibly affecting the outcomes in this instance – with a cold core storm that looks very similar to it’s tropical cousins – it can often mean swells under called at their very peak (although the opposite is quite possible).