Tropical Storm Debby Surf Forecast

TROPICAL Storm Debby has stalled in the Gulf of Mexico and updated National Hurricane Centre  forecast tracks predict a more north/north easterly path than the previous abrupt turn to the west, making the swell chances for Texas considerably poorer and sadly Debby will not do Dallas.

The flip-side is that the Panhandle and surrounding areas who have already been party to a solid hit of Debby surf will continue to see a couple more days of reasonably surfable swell following on from the weekend. Overnight on Sunday, June 24th, the buoys reported seas up to 18ft, a huge size for this area of the Gulf and a perhaps a little disingenuous as these figure were created by both northerly and southerly components of the swell running together. So in actual fact the incoming swell heights hitting Florida’s beaches were significantly reduced when compared to those dramatic headline figures.

Debby Track : Courtesy NHC

Reports from the area are of great surf off the double red flagged beaches – the long weekend run of swell in the area peaked comfortably overhead on Sunday with very strong winds running cross or offshore. Our daily reporters at Pensacolasurf.com have been uploading a steady stream of reports with shots like this from the peak of the swell.

Sunday 24th. (c) pensacolasurf.com

With the latest TS Debby track showing very slow northerly progress we’re looking at another day or so of swell, a much decreased chance of significant swell further west for Texas (although a smaller pulse from the storm will hit further west, becoming larger the further east you head). Interestingly the latest GFS models are actually showing the system in weakened form moving across Florida into the Atlantic and strengthening again before moving north, a potentially interesting swell event for the East Coast, although one of low confidence at the moment.

Could Debby make waves in the Atlantic? Possible model scenario for 10 days from now.

Keep up to date with our hurricane swell tracking model here and the potential in the Atlantic here.