Tropical Storm Ernesto looks increasingly likely (40% chance) to become Hurricane Ernesto on today’s update. Surfers able to find a window in the winds continue to see likelihood of large surf in the Caribbean and there is still definitely a Gulf surf scenario in play.
We certainly don’t want to oversell this possibility -long range Hurricane forecasting isn’t to be relied upon and this is the outcome of just one model (model = computer simulation). That said there is a broad model consensus for the current track bringing the storm into the Gulf, although the NHC are currently estimating a 250 nautical mile variation in position in the five day range.
Hold on. There’s more Atlantic activity
In addition the NHC are seeing two additional areas of interest in the satellite image above. The yellow (2) a disorganised area of activity tracking NW and showing only the smallest chance of serious storm formation at this stage, but a much more defined area (1 – in orange) in good position (and with supporting model tracks) to offer candidacy for a significant East Coast event, although again we’re at an early stage and again caution given the variability at this stage.
Finally, even further out is this blob below. Quite often the 16 day charts pick out hurricane swells well before they’ve even flickered into any semblance of life. For example we saw Hurricane Katia last year using the 16 day chart but didn’t believe it would happen until it did. The chart below is for Saturday, August 18th.
But, more often than not, predicting a hurricane’s path and strength 360 hours out is as likely to come to pass as predicting the path of straws thrown into the wind. It is however a slice of intriguing possibility, and it’s always good to hope, right?